Thursday 12 May 2011

How to Use Defensive Yards to Predict Scores in the NFL

The National Football League (NFL) formed on June 24, 1922, with 18 teams. Since then, the sport has seen the advent of the Super Bowl, an expansion to 32 franchises and a rise in popularity that has not been rivaled by any major sport in the United States, thanks to fans that can't get enough of the hard-htiting, fast-paced action. You can estimate how many points both teams will score in a game by using the defensive yards per 100.



Instructions

Things You'll Need:

* Pencil
* Paper
* Calculator

1. Find the total defensive yards allowed by a team up to that point in the season. For example, if you are looking at the week-3 matchup between the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers, you need the total defensive yards both teams have allowed. Write these numbers down.
2. Divide both of these numbers by the games played; for example, if the Broncos have allowed 560 yards in two games, and the Chargers have allowed 610 yards in two games, divide both numbers by 2 to find how many yards each team is allowing per game. Write these numbers down. In this example, the Broncos are allowing an average of 280 defensive yards per game, and the Chargers are allowing an average of 305 defensive yards per game. Write this down.

3. Find the points allowed by both teams up to that point in the season. Divide this number by the number of games with a calculator. For example, if the Broncos have allowed 30 points in two games and the Chargers have allowed 40 points in two games, then the Broncos are allowing an average of 15 points a game and the Chargers are allowing an average of 20 points per game. Write this information down.

4. Find the total offensive yards each team has netted up to that point in the NFL season. Divide this number by the number of games. For example, if the Broncos have amassed 480 yards of total offense and the Chargers have accumulated 510 yards in two games, then they are averaging 240 yards and 255 yards a game in total offense, respectively. Write these numbers down.

5. Multiply the Chargers' offensive yards per game by their points allowed per game. This is 240 x 20 = 4,800. Divide this by the Chargers' defensive yards per game: 4,800/280 = 15.74. This is your prediction of the points the Broncos will score against the Chargers.

6. Multiply the Broncos' offensive yards per game by their points allowed per game. This is 255 x 15 = 3,825. Divide this by the Broncos' defensive yards per game: 4,800/305 = 12.54. This is your prediction of the points the Chargers will score against the Broncos.

7.Round both numbers to the nearest integer to get the predicted score using defensive yards for the game. In this case, the Broncos' total would round up to 16 and the Chargers' total would round up to 13, so the predicted score is Broncos 16, Chargers 13.

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